[유효상 칼럼] 왜 모르는 걸 안다고 생각할까

ȿ ܰ濵

о߿ ū ִٴ ̱ȸ(AEA) 2025 ȸ 'ո 뿡 ո µ(Being Rational about Rational Expectations)' ī UCŬ ǥ ־. ְ е ̷ ؼ ° ڼ ̴.

2008 ݸ ް ϶ ߴ. ׷ ݸ ư ̶ ߴ. ׷ ݸ ޸ 0% Ⱓ ߴ. 1980 ʹ ħü Ȳ, ̱ ߾(Fed) ݸ ް Ű ߴ. ׶ а ݸ ̶ ݸ ξ Ⱓ ߴ.

ī ̷ ݺ Ư Ȳٴ ʿ ġ , ħü ñ⿡ ݸ ܱ , ް ȭ ٽ ư 迡 Ͽ Ǵ߱ ̶ ߴ. ܼ ſ ׷ϱ ̹ ׷ ̶ Ѵٴ ̴.

ִ ƴϴ. ҵ ȣۿ뿡 Ÿ ׾߸ (Complex System). ȸ ȰǴ ƾ 'Ʈ ĸν(cetris paribus)' ִ. 'ٸ ϴٸ'̶ ̴. ̷δ ǹ̰ ϱ⿡ ִ. Ӿ ȭϰ ֱ ̷ ϴ ѷ Ѱ谡 ۿ . ' ' Ÿ 𸥴. ųô , ڷγ19, ũ̳ , , , 糭 Ӿ ġ ϵ ߻ߴ. ׷ ƹ ڳ Ҷ ε, ֽ, ȯ, ݸ, , Ȯϰ Ѵٴ Ұ ̴.

Ϲ ɸ Ʈ '(: The Nature of Prejudice)'̶ η 翡 ô , 踦 ް Ǹ Ǵϰ, ذå ʿϸ ſ Ŵ޸ٰ ߴ. ׷ ܼ · 'ȭ'Ͽ ׿ ൿϰ ȴٰ ߴ.

ɸа Ƽ θ κ ڽ ƴ ͺ ȴٴ ' ' ӿ ΰ ϰ, Ư ߰;ٰ ߴ. ׳ ͼϰų, ֺ װͿ ˰ ִ ġ ڽŵ ˰ ִٴ ٴ ̴. ̷ ' (: The Knowledge Illusion)' ϰ ִ.

ϴ ɸа ϵ Ͽ ' (Illusion of Explanatory Depth)'̶ ߴ.  Ϳ ſ ˰ ִٰ ߴ ͵ Ϸ ϸ ƴ  ȴٴ ̴. , 帰 ߿, ︮ʹ  , ȭ  ۵ɱ ϻȰ ִ ̳ ó 亯 ִٰ , ִ ʴ.

ϴ ɸа ũ 'ͳ  ȭұ(How the Internet inflates estimates of internal knowledge)' ͳ ˻Ǵ ڽ ̶ , پ о߿ عϴٴ ִٰ ߴ. ׷ Ʈ Ϸ ó 츮 ξ ִ.

ڳڴ ɸ ̺ , , Ӱ, ġ, , , پ о߿ ׽Ʈ ڽ Űܺ ߴ. Դ. Ƿ ڽ ɷ ϰ, پ ڽ ̴. ̴ 𸥴ٴ 𸣸 ڽ ˰ ִ Ϳ Ȯ ż ڽ Ƿ ϱ ̴. ᱹ Ƿ Ҽ ڽŰ Ŀ ̴. ׷ ̷ ڽŰ ɷ ؼ 'ȯ ' ׻ ڽ ǰ ϰ Ѵٴ ̴. ̷ ' ũ ȿ(Dunning-Kruger effect)' ߴ.

̽ð ɸа Ŭ Ȧ ũ ȿ ϴ ' ڱ Ȯ Ź Ŀ ϱ?(: Is belief superiority justified by superior knowledge?)' ǥߴ. ٸ ڽ ϰ ϴ ϼ Ƿ پ⺸ٴ ڽ ġ Ѵٴ ̴. ڽſ Ҽ ο ʰ, ڽ ǰ߰ ġϴ ޾Ƶ̴ Ÿ. ᱹ ũ ȿ 'Ÿ ' Ȯ Ÿٴ ̴.

Ǻ̴Ͼƴ MBA ִ ׷Ʈ 'ũ (; Think Again)'̶ ȮǼ 󿡼 '𸥴ٴ ϴ ɷ' Ϻζ ߴ.

ڳڴ ӽ پ й ̴ ũ ȿ ſ ɰ νߴ. Ư о ϰ ϹȭϿ, ڽŵ 𸣴 о߿ Ͽ Ȯ 찡 ̴. ׷ ׵ ȭ ̳ ıȿ ۿϿ,  忡 ؼ ȸ Ǻٴ ǹ̸ οϴ ϻȭż ȸ ̳ ȥ ´ٴ ̴.

̱ ' ' ȭϴ , ѱ 0% ̶ Ͽ . ̷ ⸦ غϱ ؼ ƾ Ѵ. Ȯ ܰ ó ̴.

ϴµ ū ɸ ƴ϶ ˰ ִٴ ̴. ϰ ο . '' Ǵ ̴. տ ' 󸶳 ˰ ִ°' ΰ ϴ .